How to stop the pandemic of the novel coronavirus? Four possible scenarios

About the new unknown science of the virus, the world learned at the end of last year. However, we all underestimated it a bit. So, despite the fact that we in the editorial much has been written about SARS-CoV-2, to me became somehow not on itself only recently. I think this awareness of the inevitability of future shocks and changes – after all, the old world will be gone. Of course, the pandemic will end sooner or later, but how events will unfold in the future, nobody knows. We can only speculate based on known information. And while we diligently wash our hands and sew protective masks in isolation, scientists are trying to predict the end of this severe global crisis. So, according to the researchers, there are several possible scenarios for the end of a pandemic of a novel coronavirus. Details about each of them tell in this article.

At the time of this writing, the number of infected with the novel coronavirus CoVID-19 in the world more than a million people and this figure continues to grow. Every day the disease takes thousands of lives, and epidemiologists say that the peak incidence is yet to come. However, in this difficult time is very important to remain calm and follow all the recommendations of the world health organization – comply with social distancing, to wash hands thoroughly and stay home. Do not forget that the way we spend the coming months will affect the state of immunity, which is the only weapon against the new coronavirus, at least until the invention of an effective vaccine. To live thus in uncertainty is very difficult, and to listen to different kinds of bigots who call for the exact date of the end of a pandemic is simply dangerous. Therefore, we offer you to get acquainted with realistic scenarios predicted by scientists. The main thing to remember is that all these scenarios can be false, as all of us – scientists, too – fallible, and the future nobody knows.

Why the outbreak of coronavirus failed to keep?

The first and most popular move to put an end to the epidemic is its deterrence. If the number of TB cases is limited to the location of the outbreak, and the people who left the epicenter do not infect people in other countries and cities, the spread of infection will be minimal. So before flash CоVID-19 were officially recognized as a pandemic, there was a possibility of geographically localized. However, this possibility disappeared with the first reports of the spread of coronavirus in Europe and North America in February. As reported by scientists from Johns Hopkins Universityas soon as it was established that the virus is spreading efficiently between people, it became clear that keep it impossible.

1. Natural decay incidence

No matter how terrible today didn’t seem like a pandemic, there is always the probability that the number of new cases may naturally decrease. The researchers attribute this to several factors, as other coronaviruses and influenza viruses often disappear naturally when the weather gets warmer. So, according to a recently advanced hypothesis is that SARS-CoV-2 ill survive in wetter conditions,this information has not been confirmed. The TB cases of the novel coronavirus can also decrease, because the virus will infect the most susceptible people to him. According to epidemiologist Joshua Epstein of new York University, usually happens is that the virus infects a sufficient number of susceptible people but then the chain of infections in a natural way fades. However in small populations it is faster, and in the event of a pandemic, the process can take several months.

2. The transition from pandemic to endemic

Endemic - constant presence of a disease (usually infectious) in a particular area

Under the second scenario, the virus SARS-CoV-2 is endemic to humans. This means that it will turn into the usual “seasonal disease” like SARS and influenza. Passing through the pandemic virus may remain in the human population, becoming a seasonal respiratory disease. This is the opinion of an epidemiologist Stephen Morse of Columbia University.

His colleague Michael Osterholm at the University of Minnesota also believes that CоVID-19 may be another seasonal pathogens causing pneumonia. In the end, the only pathogen with which to compare the new coronavirus is a seasonal flu. And he, as you know, comes back every year.

3. The containment of the spread of the virus response

To put an end to the pandemic in the early stages can slow its spread with the help of therapeutic treatment of infections in hospitals and at home. Experts call this scenario “smooth curve” – roughly speaking, all of today, we do not go out to win time and reduce the burden on the health system. Such responses will bring the transition of the pandemic to endemic. But if to slow the spread will fail, it will not only lead to increased deaths, but also to an increase in new cases of the disease.

4. The development of a vaccine against coronavirus

The vaccine is very complex and time-consuming process that takes a long time – 12 to 18 months or more. But even if we get the vaccine will be possible in the near future, it is important to understand that vaccination helps prevent the disease before someone gets infected. Its main goal is to prevent future outbreaks. Estimated epidemiologist Mark Lipsich from Harvard University, during the year from 40% to 70% of people worldwide may be infected with SARS-CoV-2. But if the majority of people in the world are affected by virus then the introduction of the vaccine may not be very useful. Read more about who is working on the manufacture of the vaccine and when it will appear read our material.