There are dozens of climate models, according to which the warming due to climate change on our planet will lead to a rise in temperature of 3°C. it is Important to understand that this was a catastrophic prediction. At first glance, a small increase in temperature will lead to submerged cities, disruptions of agriculture, and deadly heat. While almost all sophisticated climate models show grim resistance, which lasted until last year. So, slowly and imperceptibly, some models started to show a significant increase in temperature. Scientists who have honed these systems used the same assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions as before, but this time the results were much worse. Some models predict a rise in temperatures at least 5 °C. At this point the researchers don’t understand what is causing such changes.
The scenario of impending disaster
According to the publication Bloomberg, the researchers began collecting data, but this process at best will take several months. The reason for concern is that these models successfully predicted climate change during half a century. The obtained results remain similar for all major scientific, political and private climate goals and discussions, including the sixth encyclopedic assessment of the UN intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), which will be published in 2021. So far, the situation looks as if mankind will not take any action in relation to climate change, we will have less time to avoid the worst consequences.
However, some researchers are convinced that there is a high probability that the models show incorrect results or they were incorrectly decoded. Uncertainty in how to read the model emphasizes one of the Central problems of climate change. On the one hand, politicians and members of the public turn to the scientists to find out how to prevent the devastating droughts, heat-waves and warm winters. There is no single answer to the question of how soon it will occur certain changes. Using climate models, researchers test ideas about the impact of melting ice sheets, soil moisture and clouds and other factors. At the moment there are over one hundred models used to predict the relationship between carbon dioxide and warming, Each of these models was developed about two dozens of independent groups of researchers.
The creation of climate models that perform extremely complex calculations required an enormous amount of time. It is necessary to consider a large amount of data that interact with each other and in the early stages to make adjustments to correct the problems. Recently we told you that all existing climate models do not account for melting permafrost. And this, as you can guess, is a big problem. Last year models that are used in the main climate institutions in the world, began to show unusual data. The reason remains unknown.
In General, to a fifth of the new results, published last year, showed an abnormally high sensitivity to climate. However, to say with certainty about the validity of all these gloomy predictions, more research is needed.
If the new higher ratings will still be consensus, it can have a real impact on the actions of governments and businesses around the world. Recall that the Paris agreement in 2015 requires countries to reduce emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere that global temperatures did not rise above 1.5 °C. But the schedule according to which the world has agreed to act in the name of this target has been partly made up from the same climate models that currently give higher scores. And that could mean that the goal envisaged by the Treaty of Paris already, unattainable.